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Is the highly discussed 'Bitcoin Power Law' a science or a mysticism?

梦中人 2025-05-28 16:06:12 链资讯已有人查阅

导读Bitcoin Power Law The power law of Bitcoin - a mathematical model that predicts the continuous increase of...

Bitcoin Power Law

The power law of Bitcoin - a mathematical model that predicts the continuous increase of Bitcoin price over time - has recently sparked heated discussions. Critics believe that this model is "deeply flawed" and more like a "constellation" rather than a reliable prediction tool.

Cryptocurrency advisor and Bitcoin supporter Adrian Morris stated in an interview with Cointelegraph that although the power law law of Bitcoin has been touted by some as a predictive model for future prices, this claim has been overly exaggerated and the true effectiveness of the model is questionable.

However, Italian physicist Giovanni Santostasi, who proposed the model, insists that the power law of Bitcoin is an undeniable phenomenon and states that "anyone only needs to see it with their own eyes to understand it".

This model works by plotting the historical price data of Bitcoin in a logarithmic coordinate system, that is, the logarithm of price and time is plotted as a best fit line. Santostasi and his colleagues, mathematician Fred Krueger, and other supporters believe that the model shows that the price of Bitcoin will maintain a relatively stable growth rate in the future.

What is the power law law?

The so-called power law is a mathematical relationship that describes the relationship between one quantity (such as the frequency or magnitude of an event) and another quantity (such as the size or ranking of an event). Specifically, in a power law relationship, one quantity scales at a fixed ratio as another quantity increases, which is typically represented as a straight line on a logarithmic coordinate graph.

Widely present in fields such as physics, earth science, computer science, biology, etc., and manifested in various forms. For example, the relationship between earthquake frequency and magnitude, population distribution in cities, connectivity distribution of nodes in social networks, and wealth distribution can all follow the power law.

Santostasi also emphasized that the power law law is not limited to Bitcoin prices, but can also be applied to other data related to Bitcoin, such as the growth of network computing power and the rate of increase in Bitcoin wallet addresses.

Support and questioning of models

Despite Santostasi's confidence in the power law, critics such as Morris have raised many questions about it. He believes that Santostasi's model suffers from overfitting and attempts to use mathematics to explain phenomena that are essentially part of the human behavioral system. Morris pointed out that the study of Bitcoin data should belong to the category of statistics rather than physics, and criticized Santostasi for misleading statistical results into physical phenomena.

Morris further pointed out that this model uses the "hindsight bias", reviews the past and uses mathematics to verify this bias. He believes that this method does not have practical predictability and is more like a vague statement of astrological fortune rather than an accurate model.

Application and limitations of the model

Faced with criticism, Santostasi acknowledges that Bitcoin's power law is not perfect, but he insists that the model has predictive power. He stated that unless the price of Bitcoin falls below $30000 for a long time, the model will still be valid. On the contrary, if there is a "super bitcoinization" of Bitcoin, such as the United States adopting Bitcoin as its official currency and its price rapidly skyrocketing to over $250000, this will also render the model ineffective.

Santostasi also emphasized that studying Bitcoin data can be attributed to "social physics" or "economic physics," which use mathematical tools to study social networks and their impacts. He firmly believes that the price trend of Bitcoin perfectly conforms to the power-law law and believes that this law can be used to predict the future growth trend of Bitcoin.